Track record
Every trend we call gets checked two days later. Hits and misses stay here.
Live, since 6 Nov
Emerging stories, since 9 Nov
-
0 of 101 calls scored so far. A rate shows once 10 are in.
Rising names
35%
held up, 58 of 166 scored calls
Against Wikipedia readership spikes (29 names): earlier 0%, same day 24%, later 76%.
How we call a story emerging
When it picks up newsrooms fast: its third newsroom within 30 minutes, its fourth newsroom within an hour, or its fifth newsroom within 2 hours of the first report. Sister papers count as one newsroom. Sport isn’t called: fast sport stories (results, mostly) almost never kept growing. A call holds if the story at least doubles its newsrooms within 48 hours.
Checked against every story of the last week: this rule would have made 49 calls, and 26 of them (53%) doubled. Calling every story at three newsrooms, as we did before 9 Nov, 169 of 897 (19%) did. The rule was chosen on one week of stories, so the live figure above is the one to judge it by.
Under the earlier rule (every story at three newsrooms within six hours), 44 of 347 live calls held (13%). Those calls stay in the list below.
Latest calls
- Amani Hooker
Called at 3 stories in a day, 19.06x its usual share
Scores Fri - Coachella 2027 Sets Dua Lipa, Tame Impala, SZA and Daddy Yankee as Headliners
Called at 4 newsrooms, 6 an hour
Scores Fri - Bus ploughs into over 30 vehicles leaving 57 injured in South Korea
Called at 5 newsrooms, 1.38 an hour
Scores Fri - Kennedys sue to block Trump arch, saying it will overshadow JFK and RFK graves
Called at 5 newsrooms, 0.86 an hour
Scores Fri - White Sox
Called at 3 stories in a day, 17.63x its usual share
Scores Fri - Warhammer Survivors
Called at 9 stories in a day, 16.91x its usual share
Scores Fri - Greta Thunberg
Called at 5 stories in a day, 16.55x its usual share
Scores Fri - 3 dead after vehicle crashes into people in North Hollywood
Called at 4 newsrooms, 2.2 an hour
Scores Fri - Bessent
Called at 5 stories in a day, 16.32x its usual share
Scores Fri - Car ploughs into pedestrians in Los Angeles, killing 3
Called at 8 newsrooms, 4.9 an hour
Scores Fri - Stacy Keach, actor known for playing detective Mike Hammer, dies at 85
Called at 17 newsrooms, 3.89 an hour
Scores Fri - David Jones to permanently shut 19 stores a week after collapse
Called at 7 newsrooms, 2.08 an hour
Scores Fri - Ruaridh Mollica Breaks Down What VisionQuest Finale's Epic Reunion Means For His MCU Future
Called at 3 newsrooms, 5.29 an hour
Scores Fri - Pat Murphy
Called at 3 stories in a day, 17.04x its usual share
Scores Fri - Ovechkin
Called at 3 stories in a day, 16.75x its usual share
Scores Fri - Bessent moved from his DC home to a US military base amid Iranian threats: Report
Called at 6 newsrooms, 2.21 an hour
Scores Fri - Kennedys sue to block Trump arch, saying it will overshadow JFK and RFK graves
Called at 4 newsrooms, 2.93 an hour
Scores Fri - House Republican Conference
Called at 5 stories in a day, 15.58x its usual share
Scores Fri - Judge denies BBC bid to dismiss Trump defamation lawsuit
Called at 8 newsrooms, 3.69 an hour
Scores Fri - Kennedy family members join lawsuit to block Trump's triumphal arch
Called at 7 newsrooms, 3.02 an hour
Scores Fri - Chicken
Called at 5 stories in a day, 17.43x its usual share
Scores Fri - Prince George’s incredible artwork unveiled for the first time by dad Prince William
Called at 3 newsrooms, 4.39 an hour
Scores Fri - US House blocks bid to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth
Called at 5 newsrooms, 3.53 an hour
Scores Fri - Glasgow
Called at 5 stories in a day, 15.54x its usual share
Scores Fri - Keenan Allen
Called at 6 stories in a day, 17.2x its usual share
Scores Fri - Pixel phones getting new icon styles, Create My Widget, and more in November Pixel Drop
Called at 3 newsrooms, 0.63 an hour
Scores Fri - Kent State
Called at 3 stories in a day, 17.28x its usual share
Scores Fri - How impeachment of a Cabinet secretary works
Called at 4 newsrooms, 0.73 an hour
Scores Fri - Zach Sieler
Called at 3 stories in a day, 17.65x its usual share
Scores Fri - John Thune reelected as Senate GOP leader despite election losses
Called at 4 newsrooms, 2.79 an hour
Scores Fri
How calls are scored
- Emerging holds if the story at least doubles its newsrooms within 48 hours of the call.
- Rising holds if the name’s share of its section over the next 48 hours stays at least 1.5 times its share over the days before.
- Wikipedia: the first day English Wikipedia readership of the subject reached three times its median for the week before (and 1,000 views). Daily figures, so “same day” can still mean hours either way.